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ERCOT spark spread mean reversion Tier 1

API name: ercot_spark_spread (+ _percentile/_momentum/_volatility) · Source: ERCOT + EIA

ERCOT's own day-ahead settlement price minus its natural-gas-fired generation cost (heat-rate-adjusted Henry Hub price), tested against the spread's own forward mean reversion - the same hypothesis that made the WTI/Brent spread our first Tier 1 factor, now confirmed independently across all 15 real ERCOT hubs and load zones.

Economic effect

-0.60x to -0.89x realized volatility at 20 trading days, depending on hub/zone - LZ_WEST the single largest, most nodes below it.

Every one of the 15 real settlement points independently scores 100% on every scorecard dimension, at full walk-forward confidence (12 quarterly folds). One real caveat, stated plainly: ERCOT's real settlement-price history (~3.5 years, via two manual archive backfills plus an ongoing scheduled refresh) is materially shorter than crude spread's own ~38 years or storage's ~14 years - strong evidence on every dimension tested, not yet battle-tested through as many distinct market regimes as the other two Tier 1 factors.

Query it

GET /v1/factors?factor=ercot_spark_spread&subject=HB_HOUSTON/RNGWHHD

Subject ids follow the pattern {settlement_point}/RNGWHHD - e.g. HB_HOUSTON, HB_NORTH, LZ_WEST, across all 7 trading hubs and 8 load zones ERCOT publishes.

Full validation methodology and every real number behind these verdicts: FACTOR_CATALOGUE.md.

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