WTI/Brent crude spread Tier 1

API name: wti_brent_spread (+ _percentile/_momentum/_volatility) · Source: EIA

The relative-value spread between WTI (RWTC) and Brent (RBRTE) crude oil, tested against three different forward targets. One raw series, three real, differently-behaved findings - not one factor, three.

Three targets, three verdicts

Target	Verdict	Economic effect (20d)
Spread's own forward change Mean reversion	Core factor	-0.82x
Forward Brent return Brent adjustment to spread	Regime-dependent	-0.26x
Forward WTI return WTI response to spread	Context signal	+0.09x

Mean reversion in the spread itself is a clean sweep - 100% on every scorecard dimension (sign consistency, signal strength, crisis robustness, horizon consistency, OOS stability), 27 real annual walk-forward folds. The WTI leg is real in calm periods but has 0% crisis robustness - the relationship inverts specifically in 2020 and 2022 - so it's kept as a context/regime signal, not a standalone trade.

Query it

GET /v1/factors?factor=wti_brent_spread

Raw underlying prices: GET /v1/series?series_id=RWTC / RBRTE

Full validation methodology and every real number behind these verdicts: FACTOR_CATALOGUE.md.

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