Weather demand anomaly Tier 2

API name: weather_demand_anomaly_htdd · Source: NOAA

Regional heating-degree-day anomalies (how far a region's actual heating demand deviates from its own seasonal norm) tested against forward Henry Hub returns. Real and regime-dependent - and, critically, independently useful alongside the Tier 1 factors above, not a duplicate of what storage or crude spread already tell you.

Servable regions

Region	Subject id	Tier	Economic effect (120d)
Central	`CLIM:103`	Tier 2	-0.59x
Southeast	`CLIM:104`	Tier 2	-0.53x
Northeast	`CLIM:101`	Tier 2	-0.53x
West	`CLIM:109`	Excluded	-
South	`CLIM:106`	Excluded	-

Northeast is a genuine nuance, not a contradiction: it fails its own standalone scorecard (`insufficient evidence`, 57% sign consistency) - but survives controlling for the Central region intact, with its partial correlation actually *stronger* than its raw correlation. Kept for real diversification value despite the weaker standalone read. West and South are excluded as the weakest regions tested anywhere in this library - West in particular is the only region with sub-100% horizon consistency and a near-zero, oppositely-signed economic effect from its four peers.

Cooling-degree-day (summer/electricity-demand) data is collected but not yet validated as a factor - no wholesale electricity price series with enough real history exists to test it against.

Query it

GET /v1/factors?factor=weather_demand_anomaly_htdd&subject=CLIM:103

Full validation methodology and every real number behind these verdicts: FACTOR_CATALOGUE.md.

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